By Fire, Weather, and Avalanche Center
December 12, 2017
ABSTRACT: The Fire, Weather, & Avalanche Center recently began implementing a simplistic forecasting system called the Slope or Nope (SløNø) Model. The intended audience is winter recreationalists that travel on or under avalanche slopes, with particular concern for snowmobile users. Spatial variability, complexity, and lack of resources are problems in forecasting that call for a simplified system. This model recommends "Nope" for conditions when users should stay away from steep slopes (30 or more degrees) and "Slope" for conditions that should allow for safe travel on steep slopes. It is a general recommendation with no bias in risk adversity that also emphasizes the importance of the backcountry user making their own call on the spot based on conditions there. Both observations and weather forecasts are built into a system for the SløNø prediction along with piloting some new snowmobile field testing for avalanche safety.