National Wildfire Coordinating Group
Inciweb information was updated: 2 weeks ago
The Horse Creek Fire was started by lightning the 25th of August about one mile south of McKenzie Bridge, OR. It was burning in timber, timber litter, and brush. The objective is full suppression of the fire.
Great Basin Incident Management Team 2 took command of the Horse Creek Fire September 2, 2023.
Timber (Litter and Understory), Closed Timber Litter, Brush (2 feet)
Mixed stands of varying age classes exist throughout the fire area. Old growth stands contain heavy surface fuel loading with an abundance of moss and lichen in the canopy. Younger managed stands have an understory of brush/shrub component. Youngest stands of forest regeneration have a heavy slash component from prior harvest. Primary carrier in old growth stands is 100 -1000 hour fuels with spread accelerated by short range spotting from lichen. Primary carrier in managed stands is timber litter and slash.
Minimal Creeping, Smoldering
Continued creeping and smoldering fire behavior today. Heavy fuels continued to burn.
12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50
24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.
48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.
72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.
12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.
48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.
72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.
48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated.