Wildfire Incident Information
Terrain
Satellite
OSM
80% contained
Fire Status
CONTAINED
Last Updated
5 months ago
Fire Start
Saturday, September 9, 2023 2:01 PM PDT
Incident #
TXS-468-
Fuels
Timber (Grass and Understory), Short Grass (1 foot)
Dispatch Notes
Control: 9/20/2023 18:34 | Contain: 9/20/2023 18:34

Current Weather

Fire Growth Potential

Fire Weather Forecast

Incident Overview

Inciweb information was updated: 9 months ago

At 2:00 p.m. on September 9, San Jacinto County requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service for a fire on Collier Road. A moderate smoke plume was observed as well as moderate to high fire behavior. Air resources as well as ground resources including dozers responded. There are no structures or roads threatened and there are no evacuations.

On Sept. 10, the fire continue were contained by firefighters. The Florida Forest Service Red Complex Incident Management Team has assumed command of the fire as of Sept. 11.

Basic Incident Details

Last Updated
Tue, Sep 12, 2023 6:26 PM UTC
Incident Type
Wildfire
Fire Discovered
Sat, Sep 9, 2023 2:00 PM UTC
Location
8.5 miles Southeast of New Waverly, TX
Incident Commander
Bryce Thomas, Florida Forest Service, Red CIMT
Wayne Rushing, Florida Forest Service, Red CIMT
Coordinates
30.495555555556, -95.346111111111

Current Situation

Total Personnel
20
Size
127 Acres
Containment
80%
Estimated Containment
Friday, September 15, 2023 11:00 PM PDT
Fuels Involved

Timber (Grass and Understory)
Short Grass (1 foot)

Significant Events

Moderate
Backing
Isolated Torching
Narrative:
The majority of the perimeter has minimal fire behavior. A slop over occurred in the SW portion of the
fire on 09/10 which allowed the fire to burn towards Peach Creek. Fuels are still in critical moisture
levels and are where fire activity remains it is burning moderately, mostly by wind driven runs.

Planned Outlook

Planned Actions
Improve established dozer line as needed. Continue to hold and patrol dozer lines and control features. Perform mop
up where needed to ensure the fire edge stays in its current footprint.
Projected Incident Activity

12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50

24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.

48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.

72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.

12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.

24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.

48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.

72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.

72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.

48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated.

48 hours: Return to a more normal weather pattern for the extended forecast will favor fuels drying to a level where slow growth can be anticipated on the northern portion of the Lookout Fire where there is unchecked fireline. Smoke production will increase slightly.

12 hours: Creeping, smoldering, and backing fire with continued rollout overnight. Continued thermal

24 hours: Warmer and drying conditions along with stronger winds from the N-NE. These conditions

48 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low RH and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and

72 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to set up on Wednesday going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop winds will test control lines and will increase spotting potential. Ridgetops will pose the areas of greatest rates of spread if these winds occur with the low rh and higher temps. In sheltered areas of the fire spread will continues to be determined by roll out and

72 hours: Following the warm, dry, and windy pattern. Conditions are expected to return to near normal values but with no precipitation anticipated. Increased perimeter

12 hours: Scattered pockets of smoldering with no perimeter growth.

24 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with increased smoke production related to smoldering and

48 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Increase in observed smoke in the fire due to warming and drying on the other side of the weak cold front passage on the 11th.

72 hours: Scattered pockets of heat with smoldering and consumption of large wood. No perimeter growth anticipated. Warming and drying with increased smoke production interior as

12 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

24 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

48 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

72 hours: Fire activity limited to smoldering and creeping in isolated stump holes and heavy dead and down fuels. No fire spread is expected.

12 hours: Smith River Complex South

12 hours: Smith River Complex North

24 hours: Smith River Complex South

24 hours: Smith River Complex North

48 hours: Smith River Complex South

48 hours: Smith River Complex North

72 hours: Smith River Complex South

72 hours: Smith River Complex North

72 hours: Smith River Complex South

72 hours: Smith River Complex North

12 hours: Chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight.

24 hours: On Thursday, moisture will hang on in the area keeping minimum humidity values and temperatures in the 50's. Winds will be light, except in the vicinity of storms where thunderstorm outflows may cause sudden increases in wind speeds from erratic directions.

48 hours: Friday will see less coverage in storms and decrease in expected rain totals. As we move into the weekend, drier air will push into the area bringing an end to the shower and thunderstorm activity.

72 hours: Skies should begin to clear out early Saturday morning and remain clear through the weekend. Although clear skies, cooler and drier conditions are anticipated through the early part of next week, critical fire weather is not expected.

12 hours: Chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue overnight.

24 hours: On Thursday, moisture will hang on in the area keeping minimum humidity values and temperatures in the 50s. Winds will be light, except in the vicinity of storms where thunderstorm outflows may cause sudden increases in wind speeds from erratic directions.

48 hours: Friday will see less coverage in storms and decrease in expected rain totals.

72 hours: As we move into the weekend, drier air will push into the area bringing an end to the showers and thunderstorm activity. Skies should begin to clear out early Saturday morning and remain clear through the weekend.

72 hours: Skies should remain clear through the weekend and although cooler and direr conditions are anticipated through the early part of next week, critical fire weather is not expected.

72 hours: Continued cooling of the fire perimeter.

Dispatch Center Contact

Texas Interagency Coordination Center (TXTIC)

Lufkin, TX

936-875-4786

https://ticc.tamu.edu/