US Forest Service — Gila National Forest
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview
Inciweb information was updated: 12 months ago
The Pass Fire ignited by lightning strike on May 18 on the Black Range Ranger District of the Gila National Forest. It is burning in grass, pinon/juniper and pine understory and being managed with a confine and contain strategy, allowing fire to play its natural role in this fire-adapted ecosystem.
This naturally-ignited fire is burning at low to moderate intensity and eliminating surface fuels that can carry fire into stands of timber in times when the landscape is more receptive to intense wildfire. A fire of this quality is regarded as beneficial to the environment, reducing hazardous fuels, invasive and non-native species, while increasing grasses and forage after the fire has passed.
The Pass Fire is expected to be a long-duration event.
Two type 3 teams have assumed command of the Pass Fire since its ignition in mid-May. The fire is currently being managed by local Gila National Forest resources.
Basic Incident Details
Current Situation
1-foot grass height in timber understory
Pine litter in timber understory
Ponderosa and pinyon pine, juniper, short grass
Monitor and patrol status
Closure Order 03-06-02-23-00 on the Wilderness Ranger District has been lifted.
No heat observed from Pass fire since mid-July. No expected growth or activity. Pass Fire has received significant precipitation.
Planned Outlook
12 hours: Red flag warning remains in effect for wind and low relative humidity through 11
24 hours: Fire behavior potential will be very high to extreme due to continued hot and dry conditions. Poor to moderate nighttime humidity recovery along with periods of easterly winds will contribute to fuel availability. Potential for periods of extreme fire behavior. Shading from smoke in the fire areas could slightly reduce fire behavior potential. Tactical firing operations to strengthen fire lines is anticipated. The Gales fire scar will continue to retard fire growth along the southeastern flank of the Bedrock Fire. Potential for a half mile of fire spread.
48 hours: Fire behavior potential continues to be very high to extreme due to dry fuels along with continued hot and dry conditions. Poor to moderate nighttime humidity recovery will contribute to 24-hour drying. Potential for periods of extreme fire behavior as fire spreads into new fuels. Torching and short upslope crowning runs likely in areas of available timber litter fuels. Tactical firing operations to strengthen fire lines is anticipated. Fire spread is anticipated in areas of available fuels.
72 hours: Fire behavior potential will be elevated with cooler with continued dry conditions. Fire spread is anticipated in various areas where moderate to heavy surface fuels exist.
72 hours: Fire activity is anticipated. Forecast for cooler conditions may slightly modify fire behavior.
12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be slightly more active overnight due to poor relative humidity recovery.
24 hours: Hot and dry conditions will aid in the consumption of fuels in unburned islands. Minimal perimeter growth is expected.
48 hours: Hot and dry conditions will aid in the consumption of fuels in unburned islands. Limited perimeter growth is expected.
72 hours: Warmer and drier conditions will aid in the consumption of fuels in unburned islands. Limited perimeter growth is expected.
72 hours: A slight cooling trend is forecast, with higher relative humidity, likely leading to a less active fire behavior.
12 hours: Smoldering will likely continue until building cloud cover and increasing humidity combine to suppress the heat still contained within larger diameter dead and down fuels.
24 hours: This will be a
73 hours: Minimal heat remaining with primary fire activity being smoldering in pockets of heavy dead and downed logs.
12 hours: Fair weather tonight.
24 hours: Temperatures continue to be on the downward trend into the low to mid 60s.
12 hours: After recent days of warming and drying, some pockets of creeping and smoldering may appear.
24 hours: Continued warming and drying may increase consumption and some additional smokes may be visible.
48 hours: If forecasted moisture arrives over the fire area, activity should remain minimal.
12 hours: Fire activity has been moderated, but fuels are still dry and continuing to dry out. The southwest corner of the fire was active today and is likely to continue to be active going forward.
24 hours: Fire activity has been moderated, but fuels are still dry and continuing to dry out. The southwest corner of the fire was active today and is likely to continue to be active going forward.
48 hours: If the fire receives moisture that is forecasted, behavior should moderate somewhat. Otherwise fire activity will continue to be active.
12 hours: Limited continued smoldering.
24 hours: Limited continued smoldering.
48 hours: Limited continued smoldering.
72 hours: Limited continued smoldering.
72 hours: Limited continued smoldering.
48 hours: Fire activity is expected to increase due to critical fire weather concerns.
12 hours: Fire weather conditions will be near critical conditions. Fire danger values will increase to the high ranges. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering. Single and group tree torching may occur in heavy dead and down fuels. Potential for reburn will exist through the now dry interior islands.
24 hours: Fire weather watch is forecast. All fire weather conditions will align after multiple days of drying for critical fire conditions. These conditions can facilitate increased fire behavior and potential for fire growth. Single and group tree torching will be likely in areas where heat exists. Short range spotting may occur within interior pockets of heat, surface fire with flame lengths less than 4 feet may occur. The chance of reburn through green islands or areas that have been dried by adjacent fuel consumption will increase.
48 hours: Near critical fire conditions will continue. Fire danger will remain at high ranges. These conditions can facilitate increased fire behavior and potential fire growth. Single and group tree torching with short range spotting may occur in heavy dead and down fuels. Surface fire with flame lengths less than 6 inches may occur in areas with existing heat. The chance of reburn through green islands or areas that have been dried will remain.
72 hours: Fire behavior conditions will moderate as weather brings in cooler temperatures with increased relative humidity. Fire behavior will remain smoldering and creeping. The threat of single and group tree torching will be diminished.
72 hours: Fire weather conditions will continue to moderate as moisture is forecast to return to the area by the weekend. Heavy down and dead fuels will be slow to adjust to the changing conditions and therefore continue to smolder as the primary fire carrier. The threat of torching and spotting will be unlikely, as relative humidity will rise to values that do not support active fire behavior.
12 hours: Increased surface fire spread expected as warmer temperatures and lower Relative Humidities over the fire area. 100 hour and 1000 hour fuels will continue to hold fire, with a chance of more active fire behavior. Surface fire activity will increase and single tree torching increasing.
24 hours: Elevated fire behavior is predicted. This is the ninth day of drying, with 1000 hour fuels near seasonal average. Increased winds and warm temperatures will greatly increase fire spread. Night inversions may increase burn period at mid-slope elevations.
12 hours: The eastern side of the fire can expect backing, creeping and flanking toward Quartz Creek.
24 hours: If spread can continue, the highest potential for spread will be south on the west side of Quartz Creek.
48 hours: Little to no movement due to another predicted precipitation event.
72 hours: Low to moderate fire spread as fuels dry out.
72 hours: Low to moderate fire spread as fuels dry out.
12 hours: Minimal spread is expected if any due to the fire receiving precipitation.
24 hours: Spread is not anticipated to the east and downslope towards the Weminuche Valley.
48 hours: Little or no spread due to another day of predicted precipitation.
72 hours: Low to moderate fire spread as fuels dry out.
72 hours: Low to moderate fire spread as fuels dry out.
Containment lines continue to hold.
