US Forest Service — Umpqua National Forest
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview
Inciweb information was updated: 11 months ago
The lightning that passed through Oregon the night of August 24, left a mark on the Umpqua National Forest sparking approximately twelve new starts. The Pacific Northwest Region is feeling a shortage of resources, and these new fires are being staffed based on the values that are at risk and the potential for growth.
Currently Northwest Incident Management Team 6 is managing five of these fires: Brice Creek, Dinner, Grizzly, Chilcoot, and Ridge Fires.
Basic Incident Details
Incident Commander Tyson Albrecht
Deputy Incident Commander- Adam Veale
Current Situation
Timber (litter and understory), medium logging slash.
Timber with dense understory. High fuel load timber litter consisting of logs, downed trees, and very light slash. Plantations and natural regeneration units consisting of small to medium diameter trees. Lichen is present especially in mature timber and at higher elevations.
Warming and drying trend is slowly increasing fuel availability in unburned pockets inside the fire perimeter. Larger diameter fuels continue to consume along with low intensity burning in the duff. Fire behavior is primarily creeping and smoldering.
Planned Outlook
12 hours: As the cloud cover burns off in the afternoon humidity will decrease to around 50
24 hours: As the marine influence gradually recedes, resulting in clearing skies with daytime temperatures increasing slightly as the humidity drops allowing for continued fire activity. Overnight there is a potential for a thermal belt to develop and allow some fire activity to continue in the affected areas. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished resulting in areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas, particularly those areas exposed to the sun.
48 hours: Developing moderate high pressure increasing warmer temperatures and lower humidity. This will allow for hot dry conditions increasing the availability of fuels and fire activity. The heavier fuels and burning stump holes will continue to produce smoke until consumed or extinguished. There could be areas of smoldering and creeping. During the peak burn period there may be some active backing and flanking in interior green islands or dirty burn areas.
72 hours: The high pressure will provide warmer temperatures and lower humidity.
Staff are conducting hand-lighting firing operations where fuels are receptive. Crews are constructing a check line at the bottom of the burned area above the large patch of unburned fuels on the south perimeter.
NW Team 6 will assume command of the fire at 8PM on 9/12/2023.
Resources being ordered now are to replace those needed for the long-term organization but are timing out.
