US Forest Service — Willamette National Forest
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview
Inciweb information was updated: 11 months ago
For current information, visit http://centralorfire.org or call the COFMS fire information line at (541) 316-7711.
Central Oregon – Petes Lake Fire started by a lightning strike on Friday, August 25th along the border of the McKenzie River Ranger District of the Willamette National Forest and the Bend Fort-Rock Ranger District of the Deschutes National Forest in the Mink Lake Basin area of the Three Sisters Wilderness. The fire is burning five miles west of Elk Lake.
Central Oregon Fire Management Service (COFMS) is currently in command of the fire.
Basic Incident Details
Current Situation
Fuel Model 10 (Timber / Understory) is the primary fuel burning and occasional individual tree torching if strong gusty winds are present.
Timber (Litter and Understory)
Closed Timber Litter
The potential burning in the Petes Lake fire will slowly start back up as the moisture starts to decline, the potential for some moderate burning may occur along edges of the fire that still have some heat.
Observed Fire Behavior:
Minimal
Creeping
Smoldering
Planned Outlook
12 hours: Continued active fire behavior with single and group tree torching, flanking, backing with
24 hours: Continued red flag conditions with higher temps, lower RH, and NE winds with gusts to 25 mph. Expect active fire spread overnight. Spread through spotting, backing, uphill runs, flanking,
48 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds to continue into Thursday. Increased
72 hours: Potential for the lowest RH values and ENE winds going into Thursday. Increased ridgetop
72 hours: Following the warm, dry, and windy pattern. Conditions are expected to return to near normal values but with no precipitation anticipated. Increased perimeter heat will lead to additional growth along ridges or exposed areas.
12 hours: Fire behavior is expected to be minimal. Creeping and smoldering in duff with isolated jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
24 hours: Seasonable warm and dry weather will continue and allow for interior fuels to continue to consume. Fire behavior will be creeping and smoldering in surface fuels while consuming jackpots of concentrated heavy dead and downed fuels. No perimeter growth anticipated.
48 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth anticipated.
72 hours: Continued warm and dry weather, fire behavior potential will be limited to areas of available fuels interior to established control features. No perimeter growth is anticipated.
72 hours: ERC values for the area are forecast to rise near the 90th percentile by Friday. No perimeter growth growth is anticipated.
Shade Fuel Break: target 200 foot depth from road edge.
Planned construction length - 9.7 miles
