Tesmond D. Hurd 1
1 Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center, Island City, Oregon 97850
SUMMARY: The FWAC Fire Growth Potential (FGP) model uses a proprietary algorithm of meteorological (weather) diagnostic variables to determine with the likelihood of a wildfire growing larger. The model uses data for the proceeding 24 hours to calculate the likelihood of a wildfire growing larger if not contained or controlled. To learn more about the fire model, see the full paper below.
ABSTRACT: For decades, researchers have studied wildland fires and the variables that influence their behavior. In 1977, the National Fire-Danger Rating System (NFDRS) was introduced as a standardized system for assessing fire danger. In 1988, the Haines Index was developed for fire managers to assess atmospheric instability as it pertains to large or erratic wildfires. Numerous authors have concluded that fuels, terrain, and weather are primary factors influencing wildfire behavior and rate of spread. While the NFDRS and Haines Index are still commonly used, the Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center (FWAC) sought to develop a new wildfire growth potential model, for the organization's Wildfire Map website, based on three categories relevant to individual wildfires. The Fire Growth Potential (FGP) model predicts the likelihood of wildfire growth using meteorological variables in close proximity to the fire only. In designing the model, each category of wildfire growth likelihood is associated with the green-yellow-red scheme of colors to be easily identifiable among public users. Current and forecasted air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data near the location of a wildfire are combined for computation. A revision to the model was made in 2020 and subsequently this manuscript. Conclusions drawn from analysis of model data showed that the FGP model was successful in determining wildfire growth. Future revisions of the FGP model should include fuels and terrain to improve accuracy.