Wildfire Incident Report
Prepared: Saturday, December 9, 2023 10:56:35 AM MSTWildfire Incident Report
Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center
La Grande, OR, USA
www.fireweatheravalanche.org
(2 months ago)
(4 months ago)
The Prior Fire continued to show growth on the west perimeter along Forest System Trail 164 west of Woodland Park and the fire continued to burn in No Name Canyon west of Prior Creek. There was also growth on the east side of the fire in Woodland Park. The fire size was mapped via aircraft yesterday at 3,670 acres.
Crews were inserted into the Middle Fork Gila near Flying V canyon, Willow Creek, and Gila center to begin assessing and clearing Forest System Trails for potential future control features as the fire moves closer to values at risk. The Prior Fire is a great opportunity for fire to play its natural role in the landscape as it burns in a remote area of the Gila Wilderness. Historically this area has seen fires return at regular intervals. Fire behavior was observed to be low to moderate intensity surface fire, that is consuming down heavy fuels, grass and timber litter.
Frequent fire return in these fire adapted ecosystems aids in raising tree limb height and reducing ladder fuels that could result in higher intensity fires. The rich fire history in the Gila Wilderness has resulted in conditions where fire can play its natural role with a much lower chance of high a high severity fire. We expect to see a much lower mortality rate in the Ponderosa Pine and Mixed conifer. The fire did receive precipitation yesterday and a horseback group will be riding the fire today to assess potential for growth. Crews will continue to prep trails and monitor fire growth. Smoke may be visible from the Gila Cliff Dwellings National Monument.
Timber, brush
48 hours: Thunderstorms expected to arrive Friday with the potential for gusty outflow winds and lightning.
12 hours: Fire activity expected to increase throughout the day as warm temps and low RH, along with northerly winds a concern. Single tree torching with spot fire development is likely.
12 hours: Low relative humidity and moderate temperatures will result in active fire behavior. With fine dead fuel moistures at 3
24 hours: Increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures will reduce the potential for fire spread on Friday. Northwest winds will limit most fire spread to backing along the western flank. Single tree torching may occur, but spotting should be minimal.
48 hours: Cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity will significantly limit fire movement in fine dead fuels. Heavy fuels will continue to burn and will be the most likely source of fire spread. Spotting should be minimal. Winds will shift to out of the east shifting the primary direction of fire spread.
72 hours: Sunday will be the peak of the cooling trend with lower maximum temperatures and high relative humidity. This will suppress fire behavior substantially, though expect burning to persist in heavy fuels. Surface fire spread should be limited to creeping and smoldering activity. Expect wind to shift to out of the south changing the primary direction of fire spread.
72 hours: Fire growth will remain minimal through the weekend but will begin to increase Monday. Fire behavior will remain low and slow in surface fuels, but more heat will be present in heavy fuels. Winds will shift back out of the west.
Trails 268, 785, 12, 730, 156. Trail 29 from Prior Cabin west to the junction of Trail 30, Trail 30 from the junction of trail 165 south to the junction with 164 in Lilly Park, Trail 164 in Lilly Park east to the junction with trail 12 in Woodland Park.
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