South Zone: Patrol and mop-up any heat that has a potential to threaten containment lines. Backhaul hose, garbage and any unneeded equipment. Look for opportunities to go direct when applicable. Identify potential contingency line. Continue chipping operations in Indian Head Ranch. Continue line construction from the 83 Road north to Bull Creek. Prepare indirect line along the 203 Road to Ruidoso Ridge. Scout additional control line placement west of the 203 Road for future implementation to defend all communities west of Skyline Ridge. Continue indirect line prep from Highway 25 to Bull Creek Drainage. Construct line from DP-731 to County Road 63 along the 646 Road. Construct line from Mora Campground to Iron Gate Campground. Construct line from DP-66 to DP-25. Locate, triage and prep all structures. Provide structure defense in Upper and Lower Colonias, Pecos River Corridor and all other threatened communities to the east. West Zone: Branch 20 - Continue direct line N of Martinez Pond in Div K south to tie into dozer line. The 1500 foot of elevation gain in less than 1-mile, ragged edge and spots in heavy mixed conifer has delayed completion. Estimate completing tomorrow and patrolling with 2 IHCs for 2-3 additional days. Road system from Penasco to Ripley Point along the Bear Mountain Road is has been opened up. Continue to improve road and evaluate opportunities to tie road into western fires edge near Comales Cutoff. After evaluating alternatives, direct line construction along the active perimeter west of Angostura is the preferred option and IHCs are beginning to implement. It is estimated that it will take 8-9 IHCs 6-8 days to secure the fires edge South of Highway 518. Aggressive aerial suppression efforts directly along the fires edge will be used in coordination with crews and mechanized equipment to secure this edge. Branch 25 - In coordination with East Zone, continue line construction on the northern community protection line from Highway 518 to Highway 76, South to the Luna fire scar and north to highway 64.
East Zone: Work with the communities in the East Zone of the fire. East zone will continue to identify values at risk and address concerns from the community and cooperators. Develop evacuation zones in coordination with the other zones and continue to communicate and coordinate progress. Coordinate with other Incident management teams with resources and strategies. Continue line construction on County Road B003
Projected Incident Activity
West Zone: SR 518 near Angostura has reached SR 518. Spot fires to the south of the Agua Piedra Campground on SR518 have "hung" up mid slope. Fire south of Tres Ritos will move northwest across the mid-slope. Fire at Romero Lake has stayed within containment lines. Fire in the Chacon Corridor continues backing downslope towards SR 121.
South Zone: Fire is expected to remain very active through the burn period, and into the night due to high winds, low relative humidity, and a southeasterly wind. Several down slope fire runs occurred last night that are expected to progressively flank/run the slopes to the north and northwest resulting in additional acres burned. Several spot fires up to a half mile distance occurred down slope of the runs. Smoke flow to the north is expected to accumulate in the upper Pecos Valley drainage, with some column development possible. Wind direction transitions from southeasterly to east during the night with a reinforcing frontal passage. Potential for down slope wind driven fire behavior during the late evening hours.
East Zone: 12 hours: Active burning conditions expected, rollout will continue to challenge containment lines. Fire will likely continue to spread as fuels are extremely dry and receptive. Crews will continue to go direct where possible and the
probability of ignition is 40-50%.
West Zone: The passage of a cold front has brought in cooler temperatures, higher relative humidity and less winds. Lower level winds will come out of the south, southeast while ridge top winds will be more southerly. Fire will spread north to SR 518 by roll out and corresponding up slope runs. The fire above Tres Ritos will have shot range spotting (.10 miles) with slope reversal.
South Zone: Post frontal conditions will result increased relative humidity, and diminishing southeast winds. A
southeasterly wind pattern will result in continued up-drainage spread of any new perimeter from previous day. Very active fire behavior including rapid spread on slopes, torching with spotting, and short crown runs may be expected. Potential down slope winds into the Cow Creek / Bull Creek area, and over the crest of the Sangre de Cristo mountains on the western flank. Potential for column development, and increased acreage due to wind direction dynamics. Improved
relative humidity and partial cloud cover, but overall very active fire behavior. Smoke accumulation likely in the upper
Pecos River drainage, with potential smoke in the lower drainage overnight.
East Zone: 24 hours: Active burning conditions expected, rollout will continue to challenge containment lines. Fire will likely continue to spread as fuels are extremely dry and receptive. Crews will continue to go direct where possible and the
probability of ignition is 50-60%.
West Zone: Fire behavior will moderate as relative humidity increases during the day with good over night recoveries.
Winds decrease and are out of the south. Burn periods will begin later in the days and end earlier. Some areas of the fire
may have activity where fuels, winds and topography align but will have minimal growth. Single/group tree torching, roll
out and some short duration runs are possible. Single and group tree torching are probable.
South Zone: Partly cloudy sky, low daytime humidity, and good night time recovery will sustain very active burning conditions. South-southwest drainage winds in the Pecos River drainage will produce flanking fire with up slope torching and short range spotting in the Cow Creek and Bull Creek areas, and other areas on the west facing slopes. Potential down canyon winds may produce erratic fire behavior and increased acreage . Some fire growth expected for the period due to southerly wind flow. Likely accumulation of smoke overnight in upper Pecos Valley.
East Zone: 48 hours: Active burning conditions expected, rollout will continue to challenge containment lines. Fire will likely continue to spread as fuels are extremely dry and receptive. Crews will continue to go direct where possible and the probability of ignition is 60-65%.
West Zone: Fire behavior will begin to slowly increase as weather gradually warms up and relative humidity decreases.
South Zone: Continued active fire behavior due to warm, dry, and windy conditions. Winds vary between SSW-NE-SW with threat of thunderstorms. Continued dry conditions will produce active fire behavior potential including rapid fire spread on slopes with torching and spotting.
East Zone: 72 hours: Active burning conditions expected, rollout will continue to challenge containment lines. Fire will likely continue to spread as fuels are extremely dry and receptive. Crews will continue to go direct where possible and
the probability of ignition
is 60-65%. There is a 40% chance of strong thunderstorms.
Anticipated after 72 hours:
West Zone: Fire behavior increase
as drier warmer air moves into the fire area.
South Zone: Resumption of warming and drying will sustain conditions favorable for active fire behavior. Expecting high temperatures, single digit humidity, unstable atmosphere, and gusty SW winds.
East Zone: Anticipated after 72 hours: Active burning conditions expected, humidity will be dropping. Rollout will continue to challenge containment lines. Fire will likely continue to spread as fuels are extremely dry and receptive. Crews will continue to go direct where possible and the probability of ignition is 80-90%