Wildfire Incident Report

Prepared: Thursday, October 21, 2021 10:40:35 PM PDT

Wildfire Incident Report


Fire, Weather & Avalanche Center
La Grande, OR, USA
www.fireweatheravalanche.org
Incident #
2021-CASHF-001187
FWAC Incident ID
205682
Incident Name
Monument Fire
Last Updated
Thursday, October 21, 2021 10:14 PM PDT
(26 mins, 33 secs ago)
Fire Reported
Friday, July 30, 2021 7:10 PM PDT
(2 months ago)
State
California
Incident Type
Wildfire
Location
39.4 miles ESE of McKinleyville, CA
Responsible Agency
US Forest Service
Responsible Fire Unit
Shasta-Trinity National Forest
Current Weather
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview

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The Monument Fire is a lightning-caused fire that was first reported on Friday, July 30, 2021 at approximately 6:00 pm after a series of thunderstorms moved through the area.

The fire was discovered near Monument Peak, south of Highway 299 near Del Loma. By August 4, the fire had spread to approximately 15,000 acres and the Shasta-Trinity National Forest had requested an Incident Management Team to take over management of the fire. The fire is burning in brush and timber, mostly within footprints of previous fires, the 2006 Pigeon Fire, 2015 Happy Fire and 2008 Cedar, Eagle, Miners, and Buckhorn Fires. The primary carrier of fire at lower elevations is grass and shrub mix. In the mid to upper elevation, the fuels are heavy forest litter with shrubs and small trees. There are pockets of heavy dead and down. Fuels are fully cured and available for ignition.

The fire is currently holding at 223,124 acres with 94% containment. The area without containment has not continue to spread and is being monitored. Firefighters are still out on the fireline and focusing on abating hazards such as damaged trees that pose a threat to public and firefighter safety. The incident is being managed by California Interagency Incident Management Team 11 under Incident Commander Chris Fogle who took over on October 9, 2021.

Incident Type
Wildfire
Cause
Lightning
Date of Origin
Friday July 30th, 2021 approx. 06:00 PM
Location
Del Loma, CA near Monument Peak
Incident Commander
Chris Fogle, ICT1
Norm Walker, Deputy ICT1
CIIMT 11
Incident Description
Wildfire
Coordinates
40.752, -123.337
Total Personnel
101
Size (Acres)
223,124
Containment
94%
Estimated Containment Date
Monday November 01st, 2021 approx. 08:00 AM
Fuels Involved
Timber (Grass and Understory)
Timber (Litter and Understory)
Brush (2 feet)

Narrative: The primary carrier of fire at lower elevations is grass and shrub mix. In the mid to upper elevation the fuels are heavy forest litter with shrubs and small trees. There are pockets of heavy dead and down. Fuels are fully cured and available for ignition.
Significant Events
Minimal

Narrative: No observed fire activity during todays operational period.
Planned Actions
Repair damage, minimizing negative environmental effects by stabilizing soil conditions and erosion along with restoring resource conditions caused by fire suppression activities following Suppression Repair Plan standards and removing hazard trees along road corridors. Type 3 team will have the incident and will be assessing the remaining repair needed.
Projected Incident Activity
12 hours: Minimal fire activity expected. Smoldering in standing snags and large downed logs continues. Today Rain. High near 53. Calm wind becoming east southeast 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tonight Rain. Low around 43. South wind 6 to 14 mph becoming west southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.
24 hours: Minimal fire activity expected. Smoldering stumps holes, and standing snags expected. Forecast wetting rains continuing and reducing remaining activity and possibly extinguish some remaining hotspots. Increasing possibility of debris flows and impacts to major travel routes and communities. Showers, mainly before 11 am. High near 51. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday Night a chance of showers before 11 pm, then a chance of rain after 11 pm. Cloudy, with a low around 38. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
48 hours: Smoldering in stump holes, and snags is possible but becoming less likely as rainfall continues over the fire. Rain with a high near 45. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Saturday night rain. Low around 41. Southeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
72 hours: More wetting rains will all but extinguish the fire with any heat remaining confined to stump holes and heavy dead and down. Rain with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Sunday night rain Cloudy, with a low around 38.
Anticipation after 72 hours:
Current forecast guidance supports six day rainfall totals ranging from 6-10 inches along west facing mountain slopes and ridges to the north. This heavy rainfall will all but extinguish any remaining fire. Increasing chances for debris flows or flooding that might occur due to the unusually high rain fall totals.
Remarks
The incident continues to be managed from the ICP in Redding. Hayfork Camp was shut down today, remaining resources will be working out of Weaverville and logistically supported with local facilities. The forecasts are in better agreement, the fire area will be impacted by a series of moderate to strong storms with high elevation snow (4,500 ft+) over the fire area increasing through the week, this series of storms will be a season ending event for Northern California with rain estimates exceeding 6 inches for the week. The transition to the local type 3 organization will occur at 1900 hours today 10/21. BAER/USGS identified numerous drainages across the Monument fire footprint with a greater than 60% likelihood of producing a debris flow with rainfall rates of 1 inch/hour over a 15 minute period (0.25 inch in 15 minutes), and a number of basins with an 80-100% probability of producing a debris flow if these rainfall rates were observed.
Areas most prone include:
-Drainages along Highway 299 near and west of Big Bar
-Drainages along Soldier Creek Road
-Drainages along Hayfork Creek
Weather Concerns
An intense band of precipitation will move through late Thursday evening through Friday morning. Periods of moderate to heavy rain are expected, especially Friday morning. These could bring potential ash and debris flows over recent burn scar areas in Shasta, Tehama, Butte and Plumas counties. Potential rainfall rates will be over a half inch per hour this evening. Snow levels will be high. The widespread rain tonight will wind down during the late morning and afternoon on Friday. The next round of mostly light to moderate rain will arrive late Friday night into Saturday. The strongest and wettest of storms in the series will arrive on Sunday and will probably yield higher hourly rain rates. Six hourly amounts from 1.5 to 3.0 inches are forecast with the next plume of moisture expected on Sunday. The deterministic models and ensembles were still showing differences on the location of the rain max. The GFS was farther south, over Lake and southeastern Mendo Counties. The ECMWF has the rain max centered farther north, over southern Humboldt/northern Mendocino Counties. Either way the entire forecast area will get another good soaking. The rate of southeast progression of the moist plume is also not completely certain. A slower progression will bring higher potential for localized flooding as well as rock and mud slides on area roads. Also, the national blend of models have been locking onto stronger southerly winds with this storm Sunday morning. The ECMWF ensemble member mean for select airports are also indicating potential wind gusts to 40 mph. A handful of members are over 50 mph. It will likely be windy again before and during frontal passage. Moe rain and showers will follow on Monday and Tuesday. By the end of this weekend, precipitation totals will be above normal for the month of October even for the climatologically driest portions of the forecast area.
Incident Contact
Fire information
Email: 2021.monument@firenet.gov
Phone: 530-628-0039
Hours: 8am to 4:30pm
Fire Unit Information
Shasta-Trinity National Forest
U.S. Forest Service
3644 Avtech Parkway
Redding, CA 96002
Dispatch Contact
Redding Interagency Command Center | Redding, CA
Incident Map

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