Cub Creek 2
12.5 mi
NNW of Twisp, WA
Fire Status:
Last Updated:
50 mins, 7 secs ago
Incident #:
Fire Start:
Friday, July 16, 2021 6:30 AM PDT

Current Weather

Fire Growth Potential

Fire Weather Forecast

Incident Overview Updated: 7 hours, 55 mins ago

Incident Photo for the Cub Creek 2 Fire

The Cub Creek 2 Fire started on July 16, 2021, at 1:27 PM. It's located 5 miles north of Winthrop, Washington on lands managed by Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest, State of Washington and Okanogan Fire District 6. It was initially estimated at 2000 acres and observed actively running, spotting, and torching in grass, brush and timber. Cedar Creek firefighting resources were diverted to assist with initial attack. By 7 pm that evening, a type 3 organization, staffed by many members of Northwest Team 8 from the nearby Cedar Creek Fire, was in charge, 50 residences were threatened, and evacuations and road closures were in effect. A Red Cross shelter was set up and the Washington State structure strike team was reassigned to protect properties. By July 17th, 271 single residences were threatened and one outbuilding was confirmed destroyed and road, trail and area closures were in effect. On July 30, 2021 at 6:00 p.m. the Southwest Area Incident Management Team (IMT) 2 transitioned with California IMT 1. Cooperators include Washington DNR, Okanogan County Fire District #6, Okanogan County, Washington State Patrol, Washington Dept. of Transportation, OCEC, City of Winthrop, City of Twisp, Washington State Parks. 

To see the latest update, please click the NEWS tab above.
Resources for additional information:
Email: 2021.cubcreek2@firenet.gov 
Fire Information Line – (406) 426-9595 (8:00 am to 8:00 pm) 
Inciweb Page: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7675/
Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/CubCreek2Fire2021
Smoke Blog: https://wasmoke.blogspot.com/
Highway Information: https://www.wsdot.com/traffic/trafficalerts/default.aspx
Evacuations: https://www.okanogancounty.org/.../emergency.../index.php
Methow Conservancy (Wildfire Preparedness): https://methowconservancy.org/discover/fire-prep-recovery%20
Wildfire Ready Neighbors (House Assessments): https://wildfireready.dnr.wa.gov/ 

Basic Information

Incident Type:
Date of Origin:
Friday, July 16, 2021 1:30 PM PDT
5 miles north of Winthrop, WA
Incident Commander:
Dave Bales
Incident Description:
48.551, -120.194

Current Situation

Total Personnel:
Size (Acres):
Estimated Containment Date:
Friday, October 1, 2021 12:00 AM PDT
Fuels Involved:
Short Grass (1 foot)
Closed Timber Litter
Timber (Litter and Understory)

The active fire area is currently burning in several recent burn scars which limit the total available surface fuel.

ponderosa pine, needlecast with large pockets of snowbrush ceanothus and Cascade azalea

compacted short-needle and long-needle litter with associated dead/downed fuels.
Significant Events:
Moderate Flanking, Creeping, single tree torching.

A brief rainstorm overnight missed impacting the fire area with precipitation, but brought high winds and lightning throughout the area. Fire activity reacted to the increased temperatures and clear skies as smoldering pockets of fuel began creeping in the late morning, then actively moving upslope with the light wind. Occasional single tree torching was observed in mixed conifer thickets, but ember wash was very short range and did not contribute to overall fire growth. Overall fire growth was to the north/northeast on the northern portion of the fire area, but several other pockets of heat throughout the fire perimeter displayed increased activity in the afternoon.

Planned Outlook

Planned Actions:
Branch 6: Continue to open interior roads and mitigate hazard trees within the fire perimeter and assess the fire edge along the Cub Creek drainage. Patrol and mop up from firing operations along the 51 Road from Brevacomis cabins to Lake Creek.

Branch 8: Continue with prep of Forest Road 37 and FR39 in anticipation of easterly growth within the Inventoried Roadless Areas and past fire footprints. Scout for potential control line locations and identify roads and ridge systems in Bear Creek, South Beaver Creek and West Fork Salmon Creek, as well as from Starvation Ridge to Old Baldy. Other road systems will also be considered and scouted.
Projected Incident Activity:
12 hours:
(Wed night) There is an expected return to poor humidity recovery.

Continued flanking fire behavior is expected throughout the overnight time period. Slow, but steady westerly growth between Honeymoon Creek and July Creek on the north side of Twentymile Creek as fire is carried through long-needle pine litter. Fire on the west side of East Chewuch Rd will continue moving north along the road but upslope-westerly flanking is unlikely beyond 1/4-1/2 mile due to sparse available fuels within the 2003 Farewell Fire scar. Elsewhere, isolated hotspots within the fire perimeter will continue to smolder and may begin short-range creeping if available fuel are adjacent.

24 hours:
(Thu) Wind will increase during the day as the dry cold front approaches. Many things are coming into alignment for critical fire weather conditions: Haines Index of 5, afternoon humidity 12 to 22 percent, continued above normal temperatures, and afternoon wind gusting to around 26 mph. Active fire behavior is anticipated with strong west/southwesterly winds and weather favorable for active growth. Growth on the northwest corner at the toe of Eightmile Ridge is expected to be intermittent due to the paucity of available fuels in the 2018 Diamond Creek fire scar. The fire flanking west from Honeymoon Creek to July Creek will exhibit faster rates of spread and likely move north to the ridge system below Twentymile Peak. Further south, fire along Pebble Creek will likely resume small scale intermittent flanking to the southeast along the middle 1/3 of a ridge system.

48 hours:
(Thu night and Fri) Isolated dry thunderstorms are possible Thursday night. Conditions will stay windy (gusts to 26 mph again), but afternoon temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees F cooler, keeping humidity high for the afternoon.
Fire behavior is likely to diminish this shift as temperatures drop more than 10 degrees and humidity levels are expected to remain above 30%. Winds remain strong throughout the burn period which will allow fire to maintain some of the momentum gained the previous day.
Sustained growth on any flank is unlikely, primarily creeping and flanking fire this burn period.

72 hours:
(Fri night and Sat) The cooling trend continues, allowing even higher humidity. Wind decreases to gusts to 12 mph.

Cooler temperatures, good humidity recovery, and lower wind speeds will decrease active fire movement down to creeping and smoldering throughout the fire area. Areas which had sustained active growth over the previous 72 hours will subside down to smoldering which will likely weaken root systems and increase trees coming down.

Anticipated after 72 hours:
Coldest day in a while will be Sunday, with afternoon temperatures staying below 80 degrees due to clouds and a chance of rain. Warming and drying returns on Monday.

Intermittent "wet" days with elevated humidity, widespread cloud cover, and moderate chances of precipitation are expected to alternate with "dry" days resulting in inconsistent fire growth.
Fire is expected to grow in fits and starts with pulses of growth alternating with reduced activity due to the vacillating weather patterns. It is unlikely that the fire area will receive sufficient precipitation to halt fire growth, or that enough consistently dry windy days will arrive consecutively to allow for widespread active fire growth to get reestablished.
Additional resources not listed in table: Kitchen staff: 35 personnel

Dump trucks: 3
Log loaders: 1
Graders: 2
Acres by ownership:
Private- 672 ac.
Non-FS 173 ac.

Weather Synopsis

Weather Concerns:
Overnight showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night brought up to 0.07 inch to parts of the incident. The thunderstorms also had gusts of 35 to 63 mph during the overnight hours. Lightning started at least 3 initial attack events. Heat Advisory continued today. Hot afternoon temperatures ranged from 82 to 96 degrees. Afternoon humidity ranged from 15 to 21 percent, expecting a good overnight humidity recovery in the 60 percent range. Wind was light during the day. There is an expected dry cold front Thursday
late afternoon.

Incident Contact

Incident Contact
Fire Information Center
Phone: 406-426-9595
Hours: Daily 8 a.m. - 8 p.m.
Fire Unit Information
Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest
U.S. Forest Service
215 Melody Lane
Wenatchee, WA 98801