Department of Natural Resources — Northeast Region
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Incident Overview Updated: 1 day, 20 hours ago
9-20-2021: Minimal fire behavior with backing, creeping, and smoldering activity occurred on the Cedar Creek and Cub Creek 2 fires this week. The 55,572-acre Cedar Creek is now 87% contained and Cub Creek Fire, at 70,186 acres, is 90% contained. No activity was observed on the Delancy Fire. Temperatures will remain cool, but humidity values will begin to drop compared to the previous two days. Fire spread is anticipated to be limited to interior pockets and along the active fire perimeter in remote terrain with mainly smoldering and creeping behavior. Crews and heavy equipment continue to complete suppression repair across both fire areas, repairing firelines, felling hazard trees along roads, chipping debris, and repairing roads damaged by suppression activity.
Date of Origin:
Friday, July 16, 2021 1:27 PM PDT
5 miles north of Winthrop, WA
Matt Ellis, trainee is Brian Campbell
Estimated Containment Date:
Friday, October 1, 2021 12:00 AM PDT
Brush (2 feet) Closed Timber Litter Timber (Litter and Understory)
Primary carrier of the fire is timber litter with large wood and moisture stressed brush.
Minimal Creeping Smoldering
Continue mop up operations and back haul any excess equipment.
Continue work on suppression repair in coordination with Resource Advisors.
Projected Incident Activity:
12 hours: d spread potential. Little additional fire growth is anticipated in the next 12 hours. 24 hours: Seasonal temperatures and relative humidity values above 25% should limit spread potential. Interior pockets and the active fire perimeter in remote terrain are expected to have mostly creeping fire behavior with occasional tree torching. 48 hours: Seasonal temperatures and relative humidity values above 25% should limit spread potential. Interior pockets and the active fire perimeter in remote terrain are expected to have mostly creeping fire behavior with occasional tree torching. 72 hours: A dry cold front is expected to pass over the fire area on Wednesday, September 15, bringing the chance for high winds. Minimum relative humidity values are not currently expected to drop below 30% so the chances for significant spread potential are not high but additional fire growth is expected. Anticipated after 72 hours: A significant rain event is expected next weekend (Sep. 17-19) bringing the chance for widespread wetting rains and cooler temperatures. Incident activity and potential movement are anticipated to be low.
Acres by ownership:
Private- 672 ac. State- 798 ac. USFWS 173 ac. USFS- 68,525 ac. Fire cause remains under investigation. Aviation assets are shared with the Cedar Creek Fire
Yet another weak cold front passed over the fires during the first half of the day. The main impact was considerable cloudiness over most locations, a few sprinkles near the western edge of the Cedar Creek Fire this morning and thunderstorms by early afternoon about 15 miles northeast of the Cub Creek 2 fire. Mostly sunny skies prevailed during the latter half of the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid-60s over the ridges and middle upper 70s in the valley and northwest wind gusts of 15-20 mph.
Methow Valley Ranger District Phone: 509-996-4000 Hours: M-F 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
Fire Unit Information
Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest U.S. Forest Service 215 Melody Lane Wenatchee, WA 98801