US Forest Service — Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest
Fire Growth Potential
Fire Weather Forecast
Basic Information Updated: 1 day, 21 hours ago
Date of Origin:
Thursday, July 8, 2021 4:48 PM PDT
4 miles west, southwest from Mazama, WA
Matt Ellis, Trainee Brian Campbell
Estimated Containment Date:
Sunday, October 31, 2021 12:00 AM PDT
Brush (2 feet) Closed Timber Litter Timber (Litter and Understory)
Narrative: Primary carrier of the fire is timber litter with large wood and moisture stressed brush.
Minimal Creeping Smoldering
Containment efforts are hampered by inaccessible and rugged terrain. Objectives could be met with favorable weather and continued resource availability. Outstanding orders for HEQB and TFLD.
Projected Incident Activity:
12 hours: Cooler temperatures and higher relative humidity have decreased spread potential. Little additional fire growth is anticipated in the next 12 hours. 24 hours: Seasonal temperatures and relative humidity values above 25% should limit spread potential. Interior pockets and the active fire perimeter in remote terrain are expected to have mostly creeping fire behavior with occasional tree torching. 48 hours: Seasonal temperatures and relative humidity values above 25% should limit spread potential. Interior pockets and the active fire perimeter in remote terrain are expected to have mostly creeping fire behavior with occasional tree torching. 72 hours: A dry cold front is expected to pass over the fire area on Wednesday, September 15, bringing the chance for high winds. Minimum relative humidity values are not currently expected to drop below 30% so the chances for significant spread potential are not high but additional fire growth is expected. Anticipated after 72 hours: A significant rain event is expected next weekend (Sep. 17-19) bringing the chance for widespread wetting rains and cooler temperatures. Incident activity and potential movement are anticipated to be low.
Ownership acres in the fire:
USFS: 53,888 State: 940 Private: 744
Yet another weak cold front passed over the fires during the first half of the day. The main impact was considerable cloudiness over most locations, a few sprinkles near the western edge of the Cedar Creek Fire this morning and even an isolated shower and thunderstorm by early afternoon about 15 miles northeast of the Cub Creek 2 Fire. Mostly sunny skies prevailed during the latter half of the afternoon with high temperatures in the mid-60s over the ridges and middle to upper 70s in the valleys and northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 mph.
Methow Valley Ranger District Phone: 509-996-4000 Hours: M-F 8 a.m. to 4:30 p.m.
Fire Unit Information
Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest U.S. Forest Service 215 Melody Lane Wenatchee, WA 98801